If pushed far enough, would Myanmar leave ASEAN?

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“Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) membership still offers benefits for Myanmar, which under the previous government became more integrated into international politics and commerce. Also, the junta needs all the friends it can get. However, if the association appears to have turned against it, then it is possible that the generals will come to the conclusion that they can live without it. 

“Also, the junta knows that, whether or not Myanmar is a member of ASEAN, regional countries will still need to treat and trade with it, if only out of self-interest. Internal developments in Myanmar will still have the potential to affect the regional security environment. There will still be strategic reasons for trying to balance China’s influence in Myanmar. 

“All these factors may encourage the generals to dig in and threaten Myanmar's withdrawal from the association, if the junta is not recognised by ASEAN as the country's government.”

Andrew Selth writes for The Interpreter. Read more here.