What to Expect of Cambodia as ASEAN Chair

PHOTO: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP/Getty Images

“On October 28, Cambodia officially took over the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for the third time since joining the group in 1999.

“Sitting atop ASEAN brings some passing power and prestige. Brunei, the 2021 chair, hosted several ASEAN meetings and summits, including one with President Joe Biden. The Group of 20 (G20), which comprises the world’s major economies, also invited Brunei to its leaders’ summit, as it does every ASEAN chair.

“Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, a strongman who has been in power for almost 37 years and is personally invested in being accorded ‘respect’ abroad, will certainly enjoy his country’s 15 minutes of fame.

“Yet expectations for Cambodia’s chairmanship are low, owing to the country’s past obstructionism in ASEAN, its outright alignment with China, and the sheer number of challenges the region faces. The Biden administration is working to allay such concerns by preemptively engaging Cambodia. But with limited trade and investment—not to mention frosty diplomatic ties and an increasingly fraught security relationship—Washington has little leverage over Phnom Penh. Cambodian obstruction or inaction is thus likely.

“Stasis, however, will push foreign powers to engage ASEAN members on a bilateral basis, thereby weakening the bloc’s claims to regional centrality. A failed or even stagnant Cambodian chairmanship will therefore accelerate ASEAN’s decline, which will proceed not with a bang, but with a slow, drawn-out whimper.”

NYSEAN member Charles Dunst writes for the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).