Decline in Violence by the Abu Sayyaf Group and Ongoing Risks
ASG fighters surrendering to the Philippine Army in Jolo. June 2022. Source: Official Facebook page of the 11th Infantry Division "Alakdan"
A new report from the NYSEAN partner Institute for the Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) details the reduction of extremist violence in recent years from the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). This organization has been active in the Philippines since the 1990s, but has followed the global trend of weakening jihadist activity.
In part, the report explains, this is due to the Philippines government’s tactical choice to stop confronting ASG as a criminal issue and rather approaching them as a social issue. They have begun to focus on offering alternative livelihoods for surrendered members through reintegration programs. The report states:
As of late 2022, more than 350 ASG members in Basilan and 896 in Sulu have surrendered to the military. A majority of surrenderees in Basilan have been enrolled in reintegration programs facilitated by the local government, with support from non-government actors and international donors. Those who have given up arms in Sulu are confined in various military cantonments across the province, waiting for benefits promised to them.
So far, these factors have managed to prevent the ASG from regrouping. However, the risks of resurgence remain due to the lack of a legal framework guaranteeing the safety of ASG surrenderees who have standing warrants against them; the military’s dominant role in managing reintegration programs that is creating friction with the police and local governments; and uncertainty over availability of funding.
While this most recent crackdown has seen success, how it is to pan out is another issue. Once these programs conclude, how will former members continue to survive day-to-day without government assistance? This question could leave the door open for ASG’s resurgence. There is also the matter of tension between these military-run initiatives and the local governments they are at times in conflict with. The future of ASG remains a thorny question for the people and government of the Philippines.
