Indonesia's High-Stakes Handover

Picture: Journal of Democracy

In an analytical piece by Journal of Democracy, Dan Slater explores the future of Indonesia’ democracy amid Prabowo’s landslide victory. backed by incumbent President Jokowi.

Another growing danger to democracy lies in the political role of the military. As noted, Indonesia’s military is not on the verge of directly intervening in civilian politics in the manner of a Thailand, Pakistan, or most murderously of all, Burma. Yet the military has retained major roles in both local governance and economic affairs after giving up its formal political role in 2004. At the heart of this lingering governance role are the military’s territorial commands, a legacy of Indonesia’s highly decentralized war of independence against the Dutch in the late 1940s. Prabowo has promised to re-energize these local military commands, claiming outlandishly that some unnamed foreign invader might try to pillage Indonesia’s abundant but inadequately defended naturalresource wealth. Combining this strengthened military governance role with the possible elimination of direct local elections, it is no exaggeration to say that local democracy in Indonesia could be all but dead by the time Prabowo completes a single presidential term.

The crux of the matter must be stated bluntly to be fully appreciated: The man who has spent the past three decades doing more than anyone to deny Indonesians the right to elect their leaders has now been elected Indonesia’s leader. Perhaps Jokowi’s voter-endorsed gamble will pay off, and Prabowo will behave more responsibly once he is confidently holding power instead of desperately clawing for power. But it is an extremely risky gamble. Having been passed the baton like a relay runner, Prabowo is all too capable of wielding it like a policeman’s cudgel to batter anyone who dares to get in his way.