Beyond Democracy’s Return: Jakarta’s Gubernatorial Election and the Mutation of Toxic Alliances
Picture: Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Pramono Anung (top right) and deputy gubernatorial candidate Rano Karno (top left) arrive at the General Elections Commission provincial office in Jakarta, Indonesia, on 23 September 2024. (Photo by ADITYA AJI / AFP)
In an article by the Fulcrum, Rendy Pahrun Wadipalapa analyzes Jakarta's gubernatorial election and highlights how the return of democratic processes has been overshadowed by the persistence of toxic political alliances, identity politics, and oligarchic influences that continue to shape Indonesia’s political landscape.
The background manoeuvring by various parties in Jakarta’s 2024 gubernatorial elections foreshadows similarly complex play with 2029’s presidential race in mind. For some players, today’s loss might be tomorrow’s gain.
The victory of Pramono Anung and Rano Karno in Jakarta’s November 2024 gubernatorial election was initially hailed as a “triumph of democratic forces” over President Prabowo Subianto’s entrenched ruling coalition (known as Koalisi Indonesia Maju Plus or KIM Plus). Pramono and Rano, backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which is not in the coalition government, beat the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair endorsed by a bloated alliance of 12 parties. While independent candidates Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana also contested, Dharma was initially positioned as a puppet candidate to ease Ridwan to victory when it seemed as though the race would be over in a single round. After the Constitutional Court rulings allowed the PDI-P to nominate a candidate on its own, Dharma and Kun Wardana remained peripheral to the main contest.
The election revealed how “toxic alliances” — defined as partnerships between apparent political opponents that exclude genuine alternatives while maintaining the appearance of democracy — have evolved in Indonesia. These political alliances are increasingly sophisticated; the pattern was first established when former rivals Prabowo and former president Joko Widodo (Jokowi) united after 2019 when Jokowi invited Prabowo to serve as his defence minister. This created a template for elite accommodation, culminating in Prabowo’s 2024 presidential victory, with Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate. As one of the key players whose preferred candidate pair was alienated and defeated in the presidential election, PDI-P stood against such alliances in the November 2024 regional elections.
