Cambodia’s Strong Economy, Weak Society Duality

Picture: East Asia Forum

In an article by East Asia Forum, Mark Vong discusses how Cambodia’s strong 2024 economic growth, driven by exports and tourism, contrasts with its weakening political and civil society, presenting the ruling Cambodia People’s Party an opportunity to implement reforms for sustained growth and improved governance as it approaches graduating from Least Developed Country status in 2029.

The United Nations Development Program’s modelling shows that exports could drop by 2.4 per cent in 2030, leading to a GDP contraction of 2 per cent and the loss of 168,000 jobs. To avert this dip, the organisation recommends, among others, measures to enhance Cambodia’s competitiveness including anti-corruption, civil service and judicial reforms.

A sluggish economic performance would dent the CPP’s right to rule. Unlike the economic downturn during COVID-19, the government would not be able to blame external factors. With five years of preparation for an orderly transition, the government’s capacity to navigate the new trade environment would be sharply questioned if robust economic growth came to a halt.

With claims of liberation and electoral legitimacy increasingly lacking, performance legitimacy based on capable governance and economic development is the new anchor for the CPP’s popularity. Hun Manet has to demonstrate that ‘the CPP deserves to run the state — not because it built it, but because it can run it better than other parties’. Faced with this legitimacy threat, the government can be expected to take administrative reforms with heightened urgency.