Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election

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In an article by Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), Min Zaw Oo highlights the impact of the recent coup that intensified the domestic conflict which caused an unprecedented domestic upheaval, and is potentially pushing the country for an election. The author argues for the international community to continue pushing for an inclusive peace process in Myanmar.

The prevailing conflict impasse, while posing a significant threat, appears unlikely to result in either the overthrow of the regime or negotiations with the opposition toward a resolution. Rather, the specter of economic instability looms ominously over the regime's internal unity, potentially compelling the military to contemplate an election as a potential exit strategy.

The economic arena may well be the junta’s Achilles’ heel. Following the military coup, exacerbated by a surging third wave of Covid-19, the economy shrank by 18 percent. A consistent depreciation in the exchange rate underscored a dwindling foreign currency reserve. To remedy this, the regime imposed a hasty measure in April 2022, mandating the conversion of bank-held USD to the Myanmar kyat. Far from alleviating the issue, this ill-advised policy only intensified currency depreciation vis-à-vis the official rate and triggered an exodus of capital among the affluent.

In the face of these evolving challenges, it is imperative for the international community to maintain a push toward an inclusive peace process integrating EAOs, NUG, NLD, and other key stakeholders, irrespective of potential electoral events. Considering the conflict’s potential to linger for years, international assistance will be crucial to strengthen civilian protection in conflict-affected areas.