Presidential Candidates and Defence Policy: The Need for Threat Assessment and Consequence Analysis

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In an article by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), M. Waffaa Kharisma analyzes the third presidential debate held on January 7, 2024, which outlined the stances of each candidate in the area of Defense, Geopolitics, and International Relations.

The debate would have benefitted more greatly from a more contentious subject of discussion in debates over Indonesia’s foreign and defense policy, such as the future of ASEAN and other multilateral forums in the face of political stagnancy, the future of geopolitical and geoeconomics competition from the excess of US-China rivalry and the challenge to balance relations with great powers, or the means to project Indonesia’s influence abroad.

Evidently, the debate gets more interesting when the candidates were questioned about their means to solve a pending issue, such as the South China Sea issue, or when they asked each other on how to improve Indonesia’s military capacity and standing and how to prioritize budget allocation between military branches.

Beyond mentioning a list of categories of security and international issues, presidential candidates will have to be challenged to further outline how they plan to achieve their aspirations. Each will have the homework in competing to demonstrate the more thorough understanding of the substantive issues that may hinder Indonesia from reaching these aspirations, including ones that could come from changing external dynamics. Further, they will have to keep in mind the means to address the consequences of actions when the world does not align with our expectations.