Prabowo’s Indonesia: Inheriting Democracy at Dusk

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In an article by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sana Jaffrey and Eve Warburton provide insights into Prabowo’s constraints in the face of democratic backsliding.

Prabowo presented a mutually beneficial solution by proposing Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate. Jokowi’s endorsement would enhance Prabowo’s electability and having a son in the vice-president’s post would allow Jokowi to retain influence after exiting office. Provincial and municipal governments across Indonesia are littered with dynastic figures. But this attempt at establishing a presidential dynasty led to an escalating pattern of electoral intervention that is unprecedented in democratic Indonesia.

Jokowi's personal connections in the judiciary helped secure a nomination for Gibran, who was too young to legally run. The Constitutional Court, headed by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, created a last-minute legal loophole that cleared the way for the thirty-six-year-old to join Prabowo’s ticket. A definitive signal of endorsement from Jokowi welded Prabowo’s base of committed voters with Jokowi supporters. This gave Prabowo a double-digit lead in the three-way race, making him highly likely to win the election in a second round. But the stakes were too high for Jokowi to leave anything to chance. 

The outgoing president marshalled all state resources at his disposal to push Prabowo and Gibran over the 50 percent mark that would prevent a runoff. He poured welfare funds into vote-rich areas to garner support for the pair. More alarmingly, he used control over coercive institutions, in particular, the police and the Anti-Corruption Commission, to intimidate local officials, who drummed up the necessary votes to deliver a landslide victory.