The Price of Representation in Indonesia

Picture: New Mandala

In an article by New Mandala, Nick Kuipers and Eve Warburton explore the relationship between wealth and political representation in Indonesia.

Given the spiralling costs of campaigning, it’s unsurprising that voters believe only the wealthy can run for office.  But just how wealthy does one need to be to win a seat in parliament in Indonesia? And do some candidates need more money than others? So far, researchers haven’t had the kind of data that can systematically investigate the effect of legislative candidates’ personal wealth and campaign spending on their chances of electoral success. To fill this gap, we used the 2024 elections to conduct a unique survey of candidates that for the first time allows us to test the extent to which wealth begets representation in Indonesia’s local legislatures. We also explore the extent to which money offsets countervailing factors thought to hurt candidates’ chances of success. Do candidates who face “demographic headwinds”—for example, women—need more money to offset their electoral disadvantage? On the flip side, do some candidates need less money, like those with dynastic connections, who can use their name and networks for electoral gain?

To explore these questions, we use the first panel survey of legislative candidates ever conducted in Indonesia. Starting in November 2023 we worked with Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting to survey a random sample of candidates running for seats in city (kota) and district (kabupaten) level legislatures (DPRD Tingkat II). Out of feasibility concerns, we imposed several restrictions on the pool of candidates, restricting our sample to candidates in the first three positions on their party lists, and who were running with parties that were polling above 1% as of 1 October 2023. We also excluded candidates running in Papua and Maluku over concerns about the costs associated with surveying respondents in hard-to-reach areas.