U.S.–China–Southeast Asia Relations in a Second Trump Administration
Picture: Asia Society Policy Institute
In an article by the Asia Society Policy Institute, James Crabtree analyzes views of Donald Trump’s second term in the region and the Trump's administration most likely approach to Southeast Asia. In particular, it assesses regional perceptions of risks in the security and economic domains and discusses how China may seek to capitalize on those perceptions. The following are the article’s key points:
Along with the rest of the world, Southeast Asian nations are grappling with how to understand the dramatic changes to geopolitical priorities signaled by the early stages of the second Trump administration, in which the U.S. is “no longer prepared to underwrite the global order,” as one regional leader recently put it.
Many in the region anticipate reduced U.S. multilateral engagement under President Donald Trump, with his administration viewing the region primarily through the lens of U.S.-China competition. The U.S. is expected to focus on bilateral relationships with strategically significant partners like the Philippines and Vietnam, weakening engagement with regional institutions like ASEAN.
Trump's confrontational stance toward China, which includes new and steeper tariffs and expanded technology restrictions, will complicate Southeast Asian nations' traditional balancing act between Beijing and Washington. Regional fears focus on greater geopolitical competition leading to wider regional instability, notably through increased military tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Economic disruption poses a major risk for trade-dependent Southeast Asian economies, stemming from Trump's use of tariff barriers against countries with trade surpluses, as well as a broader policy of decoupling from China.
China is well positioned to exploit reduced U.S. engagement by deepening both bilateral relationships and multilateral initiatives in Southeast Asia, particularly through investment deals, expanded BRICS cooperation, and attempts to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade bloc. Trump's early decision to shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development creates additional opportunities for Chinese influence.
Southeast Asia's economic growth potential and strategic importance to U.S.-China competition make continued engagement crucial for American interests. While high-level diplomatic participation may decrease, maintaining strong security partnerships and encouraging U.S. private sector investments will be important components of any strategy for preserving U.S. influence in the broader Indo-Pacific region.
