Organizer: Asia Society Policy Institute
Type/Location: Virtual
Description:
China’s industrial overcapacity is reshaping trade and supply chain dynamics across ASEAN. As China’s largest export destination, ASEAN is absorbing a surge of Chinese exports—up 12% in 2024—while its own exports to China grew by only 2%. This widening imbalance is intensifying pressures on local industries, putting ASEAN in the crosshairs for western de-risking policies, and raising critical questions about ASEAN’s economic and trade trajectory.
As detailed in a new Asia Society Policy Institute issue paper, ASEAN governments face a delicate balancing act—maintaining deep economic ties with China while managing increasing de-risking pressures from advanced economies. At the same time, they are seeking to leverage Chinese imports and investments to support growth while preventing local industries from being overwhelmed.
Join us as we explore:
•How should ASEAN policymakers and businesses respond to these competing forces?
•What are the long-term implications for regional trade, investment, and supply chain resilience?
•What policy tools can ASEAN use to protect its economic interests while maintaining critical partnerships?
Our discussion will feature Dr. Rebecca Sta Maria, former Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Secretariat; Brendan Kelly, Fellow on Chinese Economy and Technology at ASPI's Center for China Analysis; Maria Monica Wihardja, Visiting Fellow and Co-coordinator of the Media, Technology and Society Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute; and additional experts from ASEAN countries. Shay Wester, ASPI's Director of Asian Economic Affairs and co-author of the report, will moderate.
About the Speakers:
Dr. Rebecca Sta Maria is former Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Secretariat based in Singapore where she advised and provided support for APEC’s 21 diverse member economies in the 2019-2024 period. Dr. Sta Maria spent years as a top-level civil servant and trade negotiator in Malaysia. As Secretary-General of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, she oversaw the formulation of Malaysia’s positions in major agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Dr. Sta Maria also chaired the body that drafted ASEAN’s economic community blueprints for 2015 and 2025. In 2024, she was featured in Forbes’ third annual 50 Over 50: Asia list, which showcases 50 inspirational women over the age of 50 from across the Asia-Pacific region. She was recently appointed Pro Chancellor of Sunway University, Malaysia.
Brendan Kelly is a Non-Resident Fellow on Chinese Economy and Technology at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis. He most recently served as Director for China Economics on the National Security Council staff from June 2023 to July 2024, where he was responsible for coordinating U.S. government economic policy issues, technology controls, and engagement related to China. From 2018 to 2023, he served at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including as Acting Head of International Relations and Country Risk, after leading the bank’s analysis and engagement on Asia. Previously he served in several China and Asia-focused roles at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including as Treasury Attache and Deputy Attache in Beijing, in the Office of International Banking and Securities Markets. Brendan also worked as China Country Director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and as a Legislative Aide in the Office of Senate Majority Leader William H. Frist.
Dr. Maria Monica Wihardja is a Visiting Fellow and Co-coordinator of the Media, Technology and Society Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore. She was a former World Bank Economist in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice and the recipient of the Nikkei Asian Scholar 2023. She is a member of the East Asia Forum’s Editorial Board and the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies’ Board of Directors. In 2017, she was seconded to the Executive Office of the President of the Republic of Indonesia as a senior advisor to the Deputy Chief Staff in charge of strategic economic issues, where she oversaw the food policy reforms and stunting prevention agenda. Her main research topics are digital economy, labour market, food security and agricultural reforms, regional and global architecture, and disinformation and electoral propaganda.
Shay Wester (moderator) is the Director of Asian Economic Affairs and Outreach Director at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), where his research focuses on trade and economics in Asia. He also leads ASPI’s external engagement with the U.S. and Asian policy communities in Washington D.C. Prior to joining ASPI, he spent 9 years in Singapore at the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council, where he led policy strategy and programming across all industry verticals. He engaged extensively with U.S. and ASEAN governments and regional stakeholders to solve problems and address policy concerns. Earlier in his career, he served as a legislative assistant for Senator John Cornyn, providing policy analysis and advising on issues including foreign policy, homeland security, transportation, economic development, and space policy. He also worked for the U.S. Trade Representative in the Office of Policy Coordination on the annual U.S. trade policy report to Congress, and for the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Registration:
To attend the event online, please register here.